{
  "question_id": "W190",
  "slug": "company-worth-50-trillion",
  "title": "A company is worth $50 trillion",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W190",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053812
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124468
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141979
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.159997
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W190",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008373
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.121221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.140554
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W190",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The world's most valuable company, Nvidia, is worth about $5.7 trillion, so reaching $50 trillion by 2031 needs about a ninefold rise. No top company has ever grown much more than five- or six-fold in five years. A plausible path exists only if artificial intelligence transforms the economy very quickly, which I put at roughly 5% by the end of 2031. The biggest swing factor would be evidence that AI revenue keeps multiplying through 2028.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W190",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The world's most valuable company, Nvidia, is worth about $5.5 trillion, so reaching $50 trillion by 2031 would take a ninefold rise. The top company has never grown more than about fivefold in five years. Option prices and most forecasters see this as a long shot, though the fast growth of AI companies keeps it possible. I put it at about 6% by the end of 2031. AI earnings racing far past current forecasts would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}