{
  "question_id": "W189",
  "slug": "company-worth-10-trillion",
  "title": "A company is worth $10 trillion",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
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      "question_id": "W189",
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8076
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          "p_yes": 0.8221
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W189",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
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        {
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        {
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    {
      "question_id": "W189",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
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          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.107
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.245
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.346
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.374
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.533
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.563
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W189",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Nvidia, the world's most valuable company at about $5.5 trillion, would need to rise about 80% to reach $10 trillion. Options prices, a forecasting community and simple models give roughly 30% odds by the end of 2028 and slightly over half by the end of 2031, counting rivals such as Apple, Alphabet and Anthropic. A sharp crash in artificial intelligence stocks, or a continued surge in their revenue, would move this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
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          "p_yes": 0.019
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
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          "p_yes": 0.141
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
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        },
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          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
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          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.331
        },
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        },
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          "p_yes": 0.41
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.433
        },
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          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
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          "p_yes": 0.475
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  "declined": []
}