{
  "question_id": "W109",
  "slug": "citizens-dividend-funded-by-ai",
  "title": "A government pays citizens a dividend funded by AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W109",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3307
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W109",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2357
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3468
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W109",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Taiwan's 2027 'AI dividend' NT$10,000 handout and similar general-revenue or excess-tax payments do not qualify unless an enacted law or binding budget provision explicitly assigns an AI-specific funding source to the paying line; speeches and program labels are insufficient per the stated exclusion.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W109",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country has a law that pays every resident from artificial intelligence company shares or taxes. Taiwan's planned 2027 \"artificial intelligence dividend\" and South Korea's chip-windfall fund draw on general tax revenue, which the question excludes. American proposals are for adults only or have stalled. The biggest change would be a law in Taiwan, South Korea or the United States that sets aside such shares or taxes for yearly payments to everyone.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W109",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country yet pays every resident from money that its laws tie specifically to artificial intelligence. Taiwan's planned 2027 \"dividend\" of about 310 dollars per person comes from ordinary tax revenue, which this question excludes, and South Korea's chip-windfall fund invests rather than pays cash. A yes needs a new law and two straight years of payments by 2031. A country passing an artificial-intelligence tax or ownership fund that pays everyone yearly would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0649
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}