{
  "question_id": "W66",
  "slug": "china-requisitions-ai-chips",
  "title": "China orders companies to pool AI chips for a national project",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W66",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count a compulsory paid or remote capacity reservation for an explicitly identified national AI programme, but not general network participation, technical schedulability, or a voluntary funding condition.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2596
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2874
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W66",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3735
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W66",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only a published binding order that removes private firms' discretion and assigns their AI chips or datacentre capacity to an identifiable AI-purposed national undertaking; general frameworks (e.g., the revised National Defense Mobilization Law effective 1 Oct 2026), compute-network monitoring/scheduling rules, informal chip-import guidance, and leaks do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0536
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W66",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China steers AI computing through state-owned builders, subsidies, monitoring platforms and quiet unpublished guidance to private firms. Officials say compute sharing should be market-based, and no published order forcing companies to hand over chips or data-centre capacity has ever appeared. I put the chance of one by end-2031 at about 5%, with the risk rising slowly over time. The development that would most change this is China launching a formal national AI programme and publicly ordering tech firms to contribute computing capacity.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0407
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0522
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W66",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China has never published an order forcing private companies to hand over AI chips or data-centre capacity for a national project. Its current plans rely on state-owned builders, subsidies and voluntary, market-based sharing, and forced measures are usually informal and never published. A qualifying public order would most likely follow only a wartime mobilisation or a dramatic decision to centralise AI development. A formal mobilisation, or a new national AI programme with mandatory computing contributions, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0532
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0651
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}