{
  "question_id": "W65",
  "slug": "china-merges-its-labs",
  "title": "China merges its leading labs into a state-directed project",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W65",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1666
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1947
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2527
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W65",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1737
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1877
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2493
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W65",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: YES requires an official mainland government (or Xinhua-attributed) announcement naming at least two of the five developers and establishing a definite decision to put their ongoing frontier-model programs under one state-controlled management; state equity, national-team investment, consortia, pooled compute, or parallel mega-projects in which firms keep their own programs do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W65",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China's leading AI companies are heading for stock market listings and new funding rounds. Beijing is tightening control through rules, investigations and small government stakes, not mergers, and China has never announced combining private tech firms' research under state management. I put the chance of such an announcement at about 3.5% by the end of 2031. What would most change this is a sharp AI breakthrough or crisis that pushed Beijing into a national crash program built around its top labs.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W65",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China's leading AI developers are raising record private money, listing on stock markets and competing hard, and Beijing's policy encourages many rival labs rather than one national team. The state is tightening control through travel limits, ownership stakes and possible limits on foreign access, but it has not merged labs. A qualifying official announcement within five years looks unlikely, at about 3%. The thing most likely to change that would be an AI race crisis that pushes Beijing to pool scarce computing power.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}