{
  "question_id": "W120",
  "slug": "china-blockades-taiwan",
  "title": "China blockades or quarantines Taiwan",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W120",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I require official confirmation that real traffic to or from Taiwan’s main island was subject to enforced access control; generic vessel hailing, exercise-related rerouting, and outlying-island incidents do not suffice, but a post-opening confirmation of an earlier qualifying operation can count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2936
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4317
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W120",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Radio requests for vessel information do not qualify unless a permitted official source establishes that passage to or from Taiwan was actually denied or made conditional on Chinese authorization, inspection, or clearance.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1896
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2845
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4193
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W120",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China has never enforced a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan's main island. Its pressure keeps growing: coast guard patrols, radio checks on passing ships, and \"traffic control\" orders. But none of it has yet stopped or boarded ships. Leaders are in a period of détente, and US officials see risk rising mainly after Taiwan's January 2028 election. I put the chance of a qualifying confirmation at about 12% by 2031. Chinese coast guard ships actually stopping or inspecting Taiwan-bound ships would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0626
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1215
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W120",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China has never actually enforced a blockade or quarantine of Taiwan's main island. Its 2026 coast guard patrols east of Taiwan only radioed ships for information, and Taiwan's defense ministry calls them rehearsals and pretexts. With Washington and Beijing in a truce built around summits, the near-term risk is very low, rising slowly to about 13% over five years. The biggest change would be Chinese ships actually boarding or turning back vessels bound for Taiwanese ports.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.13
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}