{
  "question_id": "W119",
  "slug": "china-bans-rare-earth-exports-to-us",
  "title": "China bans rare-earth exports to the US",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W119",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1993
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W119",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1705
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1771
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W119",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "'原则上不予许可' (presumption of denial), case-by-case review, military/end-use bans, and a ban on 'all dual-use items' that does not reach all 17 REEs or all RE magnets do not qualify; an explicit '禁止' or '暂停' covering all rare-earth materials or all RE permanent magnets to the US with no licence/grandfather exceptions (alone or with list expansions) would qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W119",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China limits rare-earth exports through licences, not outright bans. Even its harshest steps against the United States and Japan left room for case-by-case approvals. A formal ban with no exceptions on all 17 elements, or on every type of rare-earth magnet, would break with 16 years of practice. A truce now runs to January 2027, with more summits ahead. The development that would most change this forecast is a military crisis over Taiwan.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}