{
  "question_id": "W282",
  "slug": "chatbot-usage-falls-year-on-year",
  "title": "ChatGPT or Gemini reports fewer users than a year earlier",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W282",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2343
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4597
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W282",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4427
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W282",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Treated OpenAI SEC filings (S-1/10-Q) and earnings releases on an openai.com investor site as official OpenAI publications; 'more than X' milestone statements only count if they mathematically establish a year-over-year decline; combined multi-product OpenAI user totals do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W282",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 17% by the end of 2031, and near zero before 2028. Both chatbots are still growing fast: ChatGPT is at over 1.2 billion weekly users and the Gemini app at over 1 billion monthly users, and companies rarely publish declines. The most likely route is OpenAI going public, which would mean quarterly reporting, followed by ChatGPT losing users to bundled rivals. Early signs that ChatGPT's user count has stopped growing would raise the estimate most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.14
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W282",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "ChatGPT's weekly users and the Gemini app's monthly users are both up about 50% from a year ago, so a reported drop in the next year is very unlikely. Over five years the main risk is that ChatGPT stalls under competition from Google and Meta just as OpenAI, which is likely to list on the stock market by 2028, has to publish user numbers every quarter. The development that would most change this forecast is ChatGPT's growth stalling after OpenAI begins quarterly reporting.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}