{
  "question_id": "W308",
  "slug": "chamber-passes-frontier-safety-bill",
  "title": "The House or Senate passes a frontier AI safety bill",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W308",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-04",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only floor passage (by either chamber, on or after 2026-10-04) of text containing at least one direct statutory duty on frontier developers enforceable by government (e.g., FRONTIER Act, Kill Switch Act, Warner-Schatz, a Thune-Klobuchar duty of care with government enforcement); bills that only empower an agency to set duties by rule, rely solely on private liability, or bind only contractors do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.46
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.58
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.64
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.66
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.69
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.71
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.73
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.75
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.76
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.77
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.78
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.81
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.82
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W308",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-10-04",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Neither chamber is likely to act this year. Republican leaders in the House and the President oppose new AI rules, and the post-election session is packed with must-pass work. The odds rise sharply in 2027: Democrats are heavily favored to win the House, their leaders are demanding action after this summer's runaway-AI hacking incidents, and the House needs only a simple majority. The biggest swing factor is the November result: a Republican-held House would cut these odds substantially.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.59
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.623
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.66
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.68
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.696
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.72
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.74
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.782
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.79
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}