{
  "question_id": "W157",
  "slug": "ccp-loses-power",
  "title": "The Chinese Communist Party ceases to govern China",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W157",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056916
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061632
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W157",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003517
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025475
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046479
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.050294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062586
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W157",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Internal party coups or leader changes resolve NO; AI-driven or military displacement counts only if Reuters/AP/BBC (two of three) report the CCP lost effective executive and security control over territory holding more than half the mainland population.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W157",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China's Communist Party shows no sign of losing power. It is holding its regular meetings and preparing for its 2027 congress. Communist governments that survived 1991 have almost never fallen since, and this one has come through far worse crises. I put the chance its rule ends by the end of 2031 at about 3%, rising slowly over time. The development that would most change this is a war over Taiwan or Xi dying without a settled successor.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W157",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "China's Communist Party has ruled for 77 years. It shows no organized opposition and no open elite split, and a leading critic of the party rates its hold on power 9 out of 10. Communist states that survived 1991 have not fallen since. I put about 3.7% on the party losing national power by the end of 2031. The risk rises in later years because of Xi Jinping's age and frailty and very fast AI progress. What would most raise it is a chaotic succession after Xi's death or incapacity.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0372
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}