{
  "question_id": "W218",
  "slug": "car-plant-converted-to-robots",
  "title": "A top carmaker converts a car plant to making robots",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W218",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "All vehicle final assembly must have ended across the previously identified plant; robot manufacturing may occupy only part of its former assembly premises, provided it is an operational manufacturing facility rather than an R&D or demonstration laboratory.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2996
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3667
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W218",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Robot manufacturing may occupy only part of the former vehicle-assembly premises, provided vehicle final assembly has permanently ended throughout the previously defined plant and all ownership and completed-conversion conditions are met.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2934
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4656
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W218",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance that one of the ten biggest carmakers announces a whole car plant converted to robot-making by end-2031 at about 10%, and under 2% before 2028. So far, carmakers make robots on spare lines or in new factories, not converted plants, and closed plants mostly go to defence work or other carmakers. The development that would most raise this is BYD, SAIC or Geely announcing that a closed Chinese plant will become a robot factory.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W218",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large carmaker has yet turned a whole car plant into a robot factory. The closest cases, Tesla's single converted line and Mitsubishi's idle engine line, fall outside the rules or the top ten. Closed plants are mostly being sold, turned to defence or parts work, or made into research sites, while Hyundai is building new robot plants. A Chinese giant such as BYD or SAIC converting a closed car plant to robot production would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0899
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}