{
  "question_id": "W80",
  "slug": "candidate-pledged-to-an-ai-wins",
  "title": "A candidate pledged to follow an AI's recommendations wins office",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W80",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0575
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2696
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W80",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0774
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0931
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1325
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1585
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3843
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W80",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only pledges of general deference to a named AI system's own recommendations count; 'participatory'/digital-democracy platforms that merely aggregate citizens' votes (e.g., Gaitana-style) and party-management-only AI leaders do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0341
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W80",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Every candidate who has promised to let an AI make their decisions has lost badly, usually with under 4% of the vote. No such candidate has a real chance in any race coming up soon. Wins in places where a small vote share can earn a seat and rising AI capability leave a small but growing chance, about 6% by the end of 2031. The biggest change would be a well-funded \"AI decides\" party appearing in a country like the Netherlands or Japan.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0251
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0282
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0574
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W80",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Candidates who promise to do whatever an AI decides have run about ten times since 2017. None has won, most got only a few hundred votes, and some never reached the ballot. None with any real chance is running in the races left in 2026. I put the chance by the end of 2031 at about 4%. The biggest change would be an AI-run party starting to gain support in a country where about 1–2% of the vote can win a seat.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}