{
  "question_id": "W274",
  "slug": "brain-implant-approved-for-healthy-people",
  "title": "A brain implant is approved for healthy people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W274",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001599
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.090185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102922
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.130516
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W274",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002518
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00501
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012454
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016404
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.089634
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W274",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No regulator has ever approved a brain implant for healthy people. Even approvals for patients are only beginning: China approved its first, for spinal-cord injury, in March 2026, and the United States has approved none. Neuralink's stated goal is just to implant a first healthy volunteer around 2030, in research, so an approval by 2031 is very unlikely. The forecast would rise most if a regulator approved a healthy-volunteer trial clearly aimed at an approval for consumers.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W274",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No regulator anywhere has approved a brain implant for healthy people. Only China, in March 2026, has approved any brain implant for sale, and only for paralysed patients. Approving one for healthy users would first require trials in healthy volunteers, which have not started anywhere, and even Neuralink only hopes to implant a healthy person by 2030. What would most change this is a major regulator approving a trial of brain implants in healthy volunteers.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}