{
  "question_id": "W155",
  "slug": "binding-security-council-resolution-on-ai",
  "title": "The Security Council adopts a binding Chapter VII resolution on AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W155",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0709
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0839
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1867
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2544
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2905
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W155",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.140416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.182858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203286
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.246508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.269113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.312308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.336378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.359604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.382018
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W155",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 5% chance that the Security Council passes a binding resolution of this kind by the end of 2031. The Council has never named artificial intelligence in any formal decision. Russia struck AI wording from a counter-terrorism statement in September 2026, and the United States rejects global AI governance. The development that would most change this is a major AI-enabled terrorist attack or AI disaster that pushes the great powers to agree on binding rules.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0362
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0377
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0476
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0494
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W155",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 1% by the end of 2027 and about 5% by the end of 2031. The United Nations Security Council has never passed even a non-binding statement about artificial intelligence. The United States, Russia and China, all of which can veto, currently oppose the Council making rules on it. A major disaster caused by artificial intelligence, or an American-Chinese deal both want made binding on every country, would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0121
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0355
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0525
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}