{
  "question_id": "W197",
  "slug": "billion-dollar-company-with-no-humans",
  "title": "A company with no human staff reports $1 billion revenue",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W197",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016581
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112545
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.123195
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W197",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I allow non-operating human ownership and board oversight, but not routine human operational intervention, and count a genuine part-year switch to autonomy against that same fiscal year's full audited revenue as the criteria expressly permit.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025939
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.068174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107677
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138908
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.18059
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W197",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a qualifying filing by end-2031 at about 3%. Today's AI-run businesses are tiny and all still involve people, and no filing anywhere describes a $1 billion company with no humans running it. A new legal form for AI-run companies has stalled in Argentina, and Delaware's proposal is only a small, time-limited test. The biggest change would come from AI that can reliably run whole businesses by 2028, plus a disclosure-friendly legal home for such companies.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W197",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 3% by the end of 2031. Today's businesses run by artificial intelligence earn a few million dollars a year and still have human founders or staff. No company with $1 billion in revenue publishes audited accounts while saying in an official filing that no humans run it, and the legal and listing rules make that statement hard to make. The biggest change would be a Musk-backed AI-run software company becoming its own listed entity.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}