{
  "question_id": "W294",
  "slug": "big-tech-capex-falls-year-on-year",
  "title": "Big tech capital spending falls year on year",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W294",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0967
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5938
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7672
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W294",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1817
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3834
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6441
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7091
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W294",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.281
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.53
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.662
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W294",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The four companies' combined cash spending on equipment is still growing very fast: up 87% from a year earlier in the April–June 2026 quarter, with even bigger budgets planned for 2027. So a year-on-year drop is very unlikely before 2028. Over five years, though, past spending booms have nearly always had at least one down quarter. I put the chance at about 58% by the end of 2031. A broad cut to 2027 or 2028 spending plans would raise it most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.387
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.582
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}