{
  "question_id": "W123",
  "slug": "beijing-taipei-status-agreement",
  "title": "Beijing and Taipei sign an agreement on Taiwan's status",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W123",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002099
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003496
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00509
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006881
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          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008867
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011841
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015793
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020222
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025121
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029996
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034846
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039671
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.050206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.060625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077432
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W123",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00787
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0158
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02855
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03535
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04881
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07886
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08988
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W123",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a signed government-to-government instrument with an explicit, mutually accepted status clause (e.g., Taiwan as part of China with defined autonomy, or an express interim status arrangement) counts; peace/CBM frameworks resting only on '1992 Consensus'/'one China' language, party-to-party texts, or deals with a Beijing-installed administration resolve NO.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W123",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Beijing and Taipei have never signed a deal defining Taiwan's status. Beijing refuses to talk to Taiwan's current president, and Taiwanese law sets near-impossible hurdles for such a deal. The only realistic routes, an opposition win in Taiwan's 2028 election followed by years of talks or a war ending in a forced signing, are both unlikely before 2032. An opposition win combined with a sharp American pullback would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W123",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In 77 years the two governments have never signed an agreement on Taiwan's status. Taiwan's current president rejects Beijing's terms, Beijing refuses to talk to him, and Taiwanese law requires a three-quarters legislative vote and a referendum before any political deal can be signed. The realistic route is an opposition Nationalist Party win in January 2028 followed by a peace deal, and even that is unlikely before 2032. Such a win with a pledge to sign a peace deal would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0166
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}