{
  "question_id": "W106",
  "slug": "basic-income-for-1-million-adults",
  "title": "A G20 country pays 1 million adults an unconditional income",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W106",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I do not exclude a programme solely because eligibility is sex-specific, since sex is not a prohibited eligibility condition, but it must still admit every adult age and impose none of the specified income, wealth, work or occupation restrictions.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0565
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0901
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1163
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.193
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W106",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0688
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1624
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1809
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2431
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W106",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large country pays a monthly cash income to a million or more adults with no income, job or age conditions. The closest cases miss: Punjab's new women's payment excludes taxpayers and government staff and pays three months at a time, and South Korea's rural basic income is paid in local vouchers. I give about a 5% chance by the end of 2031. A Korean or Indian scheme paid monthly in cash with no exclusions would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0536
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W106",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No G20 country runs, or is preparing, a monthly cash payment to a million or more adults with no income, job or age conditions. The closest cases miss: Punjab's new women's allowance excludes taxpayers and government staff and pays every three months, and South Korea's rural basic income pays in local vouchers. The chance rises only slowly over five years. The development that would most change this is an Indian state paying every adult woman monthly with no exclusions.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0647
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}