{
  "question_id": "W292",
  "slug": "ban-the-frontier-candidate-wins",
  "title": "A candidate pledged to halt frontier AI wins a G20 leadership",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W292",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "For the U.S. presidential route, I treat Congress’s official declaration of the electoral-vote result as the qualifying confirmation, rather than projections or certification of individual states’ returns.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0214
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3426
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3623
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3847
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4279
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W292",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0643
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2761
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2993
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3986
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4613
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W292",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A written pledge to ban artificial superintelligence or to pause frontier/advanced AI development until a regulator or safety regime exists qualifies; 'slow down', licensing, or treaty-only pledges do not. A US presidential win is treated as officially confirmed either by state certification and the Electoral College vote (Dec 2028) or by Congress's count (6 Jan 2029), so the probability is split across those two quarters.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.198
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W292",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No winning leader has yet run on such a pledge. The main test is the 2028 American presidential election, and I put the chance at roughly one in four by 2031. A ban on smarter-than-human artificial intelligence has backing from Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and a few other Democrats, whose party is favoured to win, but most leading contenders prefer regulation. What would most change this forecast is whether the 2028 Democratic nominee adopts a ban.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.272
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.274
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W292",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The most likely way this happens is the November 2028 US presidential election. One of the two co-favourites for the Democratic nomination, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, co-sponsors a bill to ban superintelligent AI. Democrats are favoured to win, and public support for pausing AI is growing. Other countries' main parties do not support a ban, which keeps the overall chance near one in four. The biggest swing factor is the Democratic nominee's written AI platform.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.235
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.237
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}