{
  "question_id": "W125",
  "slug": "autonomous-weapon-kills-without-approval",
  "title": "A weapon kills a human target with no human approving",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W125",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1903
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2308
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2693
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4522
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.634
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6835
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W125",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Sensor-discriminating antipersonnel mines can qualify if an eligible authority establishes that the sensor selected a person who was killed without engagement-specific human approval; generic mine deaths and collateral deaths from object-targeting weapons do not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0743
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3816
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5767
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6397
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6951
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7651
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7851
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W125",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An eligible government's own affirmative official statement about a specific incident (including one accusing an adversary) counts; object/vehicle-targeting cases like the July 2026 Zaporizhzhia propane-tank strike, hedged 'reportedly/allegedly' language, and press quotes of officials do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W125",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or UN body has yet confirmed that a weapon picked and killed a person on its own. The best-documented case, a Russian drone that killed three Ukrainians in July 2026, probably targeted propane tanks, and officials described it mostly through the press. Fully autonomous drones are spreading fast, so an official confirmation within five years is plausible, about one in three. The development that would most change this is a Ukrainian official finding that a Russian drone chose and killed people.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.314
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.337
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W125",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or United Nations body has ever officially confirmed that a weapon chose and killed a person on its own; the best-documented case, a self-targeting Russian drone that killed three Ukrainians in 2026, was aimed at propane tanks, not people. Such weapons are spreading fast, but militaries insist humans make the final call, so I give about 28% by 2031. Ukraine officially documenting a Russian drone that hunted people would most raise this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.281
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}