{
  "question_id": "W68",
  "slug": "antitrust-case-names-an-ai-market",
  "title": "A competition authority files a monopoly case in an AI market",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W68",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2668
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6819
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6962
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W68",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2961
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4902
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5543
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5833
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7336
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W68",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only documents from DOJ/FTC/EC/CMA count (not national authorities such as France's AdlC); cases where dominance is held in an adjacent market (e.g., Meta in messaging, Google in search) do not qualify, while an expressly AI-specific market such as data-center GPUs/AI accelerators or general-purpose AI model access would.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W68",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "None of the four regulators has brought a formal abuse-of-dominance case about artificial intelligence chips, models or computing, and none looks imminent. The likeliest route is a case against Nvidia's grip on artificial intelligence chips, from Brussels or, after the 2028 election, from Washington; American enforcement is currently politicised and Europe faces trade pressure. The European Commission formally opening an investigation into Nvidia would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W68",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 21% chance that one of these four regulators formally charges a company with monopolising an AI model, AI chip or AI computing market by the end of 2031, and under 1% this year. Nvidia is the obvious target, but so far it faces only investigations, and the active Meta and Google cases rest on dominance in messaging and search, which doesn't count. The development that would most change this is the European Commission opening a formal abuse-of-dominance case against Nvidia.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}