{
  "question_id": "W90",
  "slug": "anti-ai-protest-of-50000",
  "title": "An anti-AI protest draws 50,000 people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W90",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0805
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1738
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2465
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4984
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.552
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6084
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W90",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2723
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.582
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6365
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6674
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6974
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W90",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts protests whose central demand is pausing/restricting/opposing AI or AI datacentres (including on job grounds), not broad multi-issue protests where AI is peripheral; a police/wire estimate phrased 'more than 50,000' is treated as a lower bound of at least 50,000.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.309
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W90",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Public fear of AI is now very high, but protests against AI or its data centres still draw only a few hundred people at most. Fifty thousand at one event, counted by police or a major wire service, would take roughly a hundredfold jump. That makes success unlikely before 2028, with about a one-in-three chance by the end of 2031. A large union, climate or church coalition adopting \"stop AI\" as its main demand, or a deadly AI incident, would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.268
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.325
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W90",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Worry about AI is very high in polls, but street protests against it still draw hundreds to about a thousand people. A single 50,000-person protest counted by police or a major wire service would need a 20-to-50-fold jump, probably set off by a serious AI disaster or mass layoffs and backed by unions or other big organisations. I put this at about 5% by end-2027 and 36% by end-2031. The biggest swing factor would be unions or a major coalition calling a national anti-AI march.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}