{
  "question_id": "W91",
  "slug": "anti-ai-protest-of-1-million",
  "title": "A day of anti-AI protest draws 1 million people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W91",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0644
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0831
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1423
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1629
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1838
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2459
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2875
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3289
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W91",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A coordinated multi-issue protest day can qualify when AI restrictions are a principal organizer demand of the demonstrations whose physical attendance is counted, but organizer turnout merely quoted by a wire does not qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0339
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0776
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0924
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1519
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1705
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2781
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2983
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3418
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W91",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Mixed-demand mobilisations (e.g., union days of action) count only if the police/wire source describes AI opposition (including AI job displacement) as a principal purpose; summed police estimates across cities count only for non-overlapping crowds on the same date.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0511
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0553
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W91",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Fears about AI have surged, but the biggest anti-AI protests so far draw hundreds to a few thousand people. Police counts of a million or more in one country on one day are rare for any cause; even the 1980s anti-nuclear movement mostly fell short. A small chance builds over five years if AI causes a job crisis or a disaster. A big union-backed national day against AI in France or a similar country would most raise the odds.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0572
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0699
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}