{
  "question_id": "W86",
  "slug": "anti-ai-party-wins-a-seat",
  "title": "An anti-AI party wins a seat in an OECD legislature",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W86",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I apply primary aim strictly to an explicit overriding objective in the party’s official national platform; an AI-restrictive policy among equal priorities or an anti-data-centre campaign alone does not qualify, while a restriction on a specified AI application can qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008975
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024752
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032554
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.070679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.084618
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.113676
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.144698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.179411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.195823
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.238669
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W86",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01789
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02673
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.18893
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28788
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.31067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.33686
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.36206
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W86",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counts only a party whose official platform explicitly makes enforceable AI limits (bans, moratoria, pauses, mandatory training permissions) its main or sole objective, winning a seat in an election concluding after 2026-09-16; opposing data centres alone is treated as insufficient unless framed as restricting AI development or deployment.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W86",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No party built mainly around restricting AI holds, or is close to winning, a national seat in any developed democracy. Sweden's new single-issue AI party won only 390 votes in September 2026. But public alarm about AI is surging, and systems like the Netherlands and Japan's upper house let tiny parties win seats. I put the chance at about 15% by 2031. A dedicated anti-AI party polling near one percent in the Netherlands would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W86",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No party built mainly around restricting AI is currently in a position to win a national seat in any OECD country. The clearest example, a Swedish single-issue party, won only 390 votes in September 2026. Fear of AI is rising fast, and countries such as the Netherlands, Japan and Denmark let small parties win seats with one to two percent of the vote. So a win by 2031 is possible but unlikely. A credible anti-AI party launching in the Netherlands would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.154
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}