{
  "question_id": "W87",
  "slug": "anti-ai-party-wins-5-percent",
  "title": "An anti-AI party wins 5% of a national vote",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W87",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023273
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043642
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.061727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.070172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0804
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098792
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11851
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.129088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139539
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W87",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003506
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025733
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076297
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089229
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.103801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.119933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.154783
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.173378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.193217
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W87",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: the party's official manifesto or programme must explicitly state that restricting AI (pause, ban or mandatory limits) is its main objective or reason for existing, and it must win at least 5% of valid national votes in a lower-house general election (EP and upper-house elections excluded); broad parties that merely prioritise AI regulation do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W87",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Fears about artificial intelligence have surged, and polls show majorities want development slowed. But the established parties are quickly adopting that position. Single-issue parties rarely win 5% in national elections, and the only explicitly anti-AI party so far (Sweden, 2026) won 390 votes. So I put the chance at about 6% by end-2031. The biggest change would be heavy AI-driven job losses, followed by a charismatic leader starting a \"stop AI\" party in a country with proportional voting.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0333
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0372
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0448
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W87",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No party in a wealthy democracy that names curbing AI as its main goal has meaningful support yet, even after this year's surge of AI alarm. Mainstream politicians are quickly adopting pause and ban positions themselves, and single-issue parties rarely win 5% of a national vote. I put the chance at about 7% by the end of 2031, mostly in 2029–2031. A dedicated \"stop AI\" party polling several percent ahead of a national election would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0439
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0483
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0621
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0709
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}