{
  "question_id": "W85",
  "slug": "anti-ai-attack-kills-someone",
  "title": "Someone is killed in an attack motivated by opposition to AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W85",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0982
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1818
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4879
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6633
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6869
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7088
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W85",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1513
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1895
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3695
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.437
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4972
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5274
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5824
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.631
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6739
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W85",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 45% by the end of 2031, and about 2% by the end of 2026. No one has yet been killed in an attack against AI. But violence and threats have risen fast: the firebombing of OpenAI chief Sam Altman's home, shots fired at a councillor's home over a data centre, and mainstream fears of AI-driven extinction and job loss. The thing that would most change this forecast is a first deadly attack whose suspect openly cites hatred of AI.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.278
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.382
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.401
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.42
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W85",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Nobody has yet been killed in an attack that police or prosecutors tie to opposition to artificial intelligence. But 2026 brought a firebombing at the OpenAI chief's home, shots fired into a councilman's home over a data center, and fast-rising threats. With five years to run, I put the chance near one in two. The biggest swing factor is whether anger at AI keeps escalating or cools off.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.295
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.369
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.413
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.455
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.474
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.493
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.512
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.529
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}