{
  "question_id": "W244",
  "slug": "anti-ageing-therapy-approved",
  "title": "A therapy is approved for slowing human ageing",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W244",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An intrinsic-capacity or multimorbidity benefit qualifies only if the authorised indication explicitly states slowing biological ageing or extending general healthspan, rather than merely improving function or preventing specified diseases.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00529
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00678
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00827
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04541
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05878
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10508
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14402
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W244",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "An indication to preserve intrinsic capacity or improve several functional domains does not qualify unless the authorized indication also explicitly states slowing biological ageing or extending general healthspan, or an explicit equivalent.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006582
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020911
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026785
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033598
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059457
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069803
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.080966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092913
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.105612
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W244",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only an explicit systemic ageing or healthspan indication counts. Labels for named conditions such as frailty, sarcopenia, age-related hypogonadism, photoaging or progeroid syndromes do not. An indication to prolong survival free of disability generally (e.g. a disability-free-survival claim) would count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0153
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W244",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No medicine has ever been approved in the US or Europe to slow ageing or extend healthy life. At an October 2026 meeting, US regulators said such approvals would first need multi-year outcome trials in older adults, and none has started. I put the chance of a qualifying approval by the end of 2031 at about 2%. What would most change this is the FDA accepting blood \"aging clock\" tests as grounds for fast approval of a drug like semaglutide (Ozempic).",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W244",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance that the FDA or the EU approves a drug labelled to slow ageing or extend healthy lifespan by end-2031 at about 2%. No such approval has ever happened, regulators say there is no accepted way to measure it, and the trials that could provide evidence are unfunded or will not report until 2028–2031. The development that would most change this is a large trial in older adults showing a drug preserves overall health, followed quickly by a sponsor's filing.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0168
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0221
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}