{
  "question_id": "W272",
  "slug": "americans-work-under-2-hours-a-day",
  "title": "Americans work fewer than 2 hours a day on average",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W272",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000181
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.000201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006712
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006722
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018628
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018667
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.038098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.040214
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W272",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005971
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037766
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039979
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W272",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only BLS ATUS annual Table 1 estimates for data years 2026–2030 (normally released in late June of the following year, occasionally July) can qualify within the window; the threshold is a displayed Total value of 1.99 or lower for 'Working and work-related activities'.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W272",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In 2025, Americans aged 15 and over averaged 3.32 hours a day of work. Since 2003 it has never fallen below that, and the pandemic cut it only about 9%. Getting under 2.0 hours would take roughly a 40% collapse in work time over a whole year by 2030, worse than the Great Depression. So the chance is under 1%. A sudden, sustained collapse in employment caused by AI around 2028–2030 would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W272",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This is very unlikely. In 2025, Americans 15 and older averaged 3.32 hours a day of work, and the lowest annual figure on record since 2003 is that same 3.32. Falling below 2 hours would take a collapse in work bigger than the Great Depression within about four years. The labor market in 2026 looks normal. What would most change this forecast is a sudden, economy-wide wave of job losses, for example from very fast AI automation, starting in 2027–2028.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}