{
  "question_id": "W271",
  "slug": "americans-work-under-2-75-hours-a-day",
  "title": "Americans work fewer than 2.75 hours a day on average",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W271",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01652
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01736
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01746
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04694
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04713
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09477
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09495
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16736
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W271",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00685
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00754
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00759
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00764
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02755
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0622
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.10922
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11412
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W271",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a Table 1 annual average for a calendar year ending after 2026-09-16 (i.e., 2026 data onward, first released ~June 2027) can qualify; the 2025 value of 3.32 published June 25, 2026 does not count, and a displayed value of 2.75 is not below 2.75.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0485
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0514
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W271",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 2% by the end of 2031. The government survey measured 3.32 hours of work a day per person aged 15 and over in 2025. Getting below 2.75 means a 17% fall held for a whole year. That has never come close to happening in the survey's 22 years, and was not reached even during the pandemic. The main risk is a severe job collapse, likely driven by artificial intelligence, around 2029–2030. A sharp, lasting rise in unemployment would change this forecast most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W271",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The latest figure shows Americans 15 and older averaging 3.32 hours of work a day in 2025. Getting below 2.75 would take a 17% drop within the next five annual reports. That is far bigger than any past fall, including the 2009 recession and the pandemic. It would likely need a historic jobs collapse, for example from AI, plus further slippage in how the survey measures work. A sharply lower 2026 figure next June would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0452
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}