{
  "question_id": "W269",
  "slug": "americans-more-excited-than-concerned",
  "title": "More Americans are excited than concerned about AI",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W269",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01204
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029708
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034559
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.052822
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058505
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.080989
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W269",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023864
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027768
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031657
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05945
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.080977
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W269",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a new Pew CNCEXC wave with fieldwork ending after 2026-09-16 and published on pewresearch.org counts; the June 2026 wave (9% excited vs 52% concerned) and its re-publications do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W269",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "In Pew's latest survey (June 2026), 52% of Americans were more concerned than excited about AI's growing role in daily life, and only 9% were more excited than concerned. Concern has risen since 2021, and other recent polls show the same. Flipping this would take a swing more than twice as large as any Pew has recorded, in the opposite direction. A dramatic, widely felt benefit from AI that rapidly reverses public mood would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W269",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 1% over five years. In Pew's latest survey, 52% of Americans said AI makes them more concerned than excited and only 9% said the reverse. Excitement has never come close to concern since Pew started asking in 2021, and other polls this fall show concern rising. What would most change this forecast is a new Pew survey showing a sharp, sustained rise in excitement.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}