{
  "question_id": "W222",
  "slug": "amazon-has-more-robots-than-employees",
  "title": "Amazon reports more robots than employees",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W222",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0299
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2731
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.434
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4906
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6769
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7206
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7765
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W222",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5837
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6553
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6915
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7701
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8117
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W222",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Qualifies if an Amazon-authored publication gives a current deployed-robot figure strictly above Amazon's total (or operations-only point-estimate) employee headcount in the same document or with matching reference dates (e.g., an earnings release pairing a robot count with its headcount table), or explicitly says robots outnumber employees; cumulative 'manufactured/deployed since 2012' totals count only if framed as the current fleet.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W222",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Amazon says it has \"over one million\" robots and about 1.6 million employees, over 1 million of them in its warehouse and delivery network. Its public messaging deliberately stresses that robots work alongside people rather than replace them. A YES needs Amazon itself to publish an explicit or same-date comparison, which I put at about 15% over five years. The development that would most change this is Amazon announcing a robot fleet of two million or more next to its employee count.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.109
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.131
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W222",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Amazon still says it has \"over 1 million\" robots, against about 1.6 million employees. At past growth rates its robots probably won't clearly outnumber its total staff until about 2029–2031. Amazon also has strong public-relations reasons not to publish the comparison in the precise form the rules require. The development that would most raise this forecast is Amazon citing around 2 million robots in a quarterly earnings release, since those releases also report headcount.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.261
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.305
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}