{
  "question_id": "W230",
  "slug": "ai-writes-most-papers-at-top-ml-venue",
  "title": "Most accepted papers at a top ML conference are AI-produced",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W230",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0499
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1638
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1973
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2869
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W230",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001999
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004991
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011944
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017872
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.043192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.056587
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069795
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104808
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.126293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.193523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.21933
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.244311
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W230",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Statements that most accepted papers used AI for writing, coding, or specific subtasks are treated as non-qualifying; an official statement or count showing >50% of an edition's accepted papers were AI-led/primarily AI-produced (e.g., an 'AI leads'-level disclosure majority) would qualify.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0396
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0503
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0615
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0671
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W230",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance of a YES at about 7% by the end of 2031, and near zero before 2029. Organisers of the big machine learning conferences have only discussed AI-written text in submitted papers, never AI doing the research behind accepted ones. Today's AI agents still fail at open-ended research. Even if AI comes to do most of the work, authors and organisers have reasons not to say so. The biggest change would be a conference reporting that most accepted papers' authors said an AI system led the research.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0322
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0428
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0619
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0689
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W230",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Organisers of the top machine-learning conferences are currently fighting low-quality AI-written submissions and treating AI as a tool. None has come close to saying AI did most of the research behind its accepted papers. AI research ability is improving fast, so this could become true around 2028–2030, but organisers would still have to measure it and say so officially. The biggest change would be a conference asking authors whether AI led the research and reporting a majority.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.11
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.164
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}