{
  "question_id": "W252",
  "slug": "ai-tutor-half-standard-deviation",
  "title": "An AI tutor raises achievement by half a standard deviation in a large trial",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W252",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
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          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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          "p_yes": 0.4908
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          "p_yes": 0.5366
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
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          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7093
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7413
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7736
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8019
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.8217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8628
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      ],
      "passes": []
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    {
      "question_id": "W252",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0533
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0959
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1592
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2265
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2845
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5093
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.556
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6004
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6403
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6745
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.7378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7653
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.7888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.8318
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W252",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Adaptive learning platforms (ITS/PAL such as Mindspark, EIDU, onecourse) count as AI tutors per the definition, and the trial's achievement assessment window must end after 2026-09-16 (so already-completed trials are excluded regardless of publication date).",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.294
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.329
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.48
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.528
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.57
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W252",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Large trials of AI tutors usually raise test scores by between 0 and 0.3 standard deviations. A few big trials of adaptive learning software in poorer countries have come close, at 0.43 to 0.47, but none has clearly reached 0.5. Many more such trials are under way, so one is fairly likely to cross the bar by 2031 (about 60%). Early results from intensive programs, such as a high-dose tablet trial in Malawi, would move this most.",
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      "key_drivers": [],
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          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
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          "p_yes": 0.009
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          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
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          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.057
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.093
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          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.132
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          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
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          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.246
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          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.282
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.316
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          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.35
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          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.381
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.412
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.595
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  ],
  "declined": []
}