{
  "question_id": "W55",
  "slug": "ai-stops-engineered-pathogen-attack",
  "title": "AI is credited with stopping an engineered-pathogen attack",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W55",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00579
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00927
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01767
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04679
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08662
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13577
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W55",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00669
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01856
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02445
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.05053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05907
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06754
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07593
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1195
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.14571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.15853
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W55",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-03",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI 'credit' can be satisfied if a national government's own official statement adopts/affirms that an AI system (including an AI provider's detection tip) contributed to detection or countermeasure; provider/evaluator/WHO statements alone cannot resolve it, per the narrowed source requirement.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0129
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0164
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0202
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0223
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W55",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-10",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This would require a historic first: a national government officially confirming it detected and stopped a deliberate attack using a genetically engineered pathogen with no deaths, and crediting artificial intelligence for the catch. No such attack has ever been confirmed, and today's news is about AI enabling biological threats, not stopping attacks. I put the chance near 5% over five years. A confirmed, AI-credited disruption of a real engineered-pathogen plot would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0323
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0358
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0467
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0507
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W55",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-17",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-17",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "This outcome has never happened in history: no government has ever confirmed an attack using a genetically engineered pathogen, let alone one caught before any death and credited to artificial intelligence. Current expert reports say the dangerous capabilities exist in theory but the thresholds have not been crossed, and nothing is in the pipeline. So I judge the chance very low, rising slowly to about 3% over five years. A single qualifying government statement would immediately change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0208
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0244
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0264
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0283
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0304
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}