{
  "question_id": "W4",
  "slug": "ai-speeds-lab-research-5x",
  "title": "A lab says AI has made its research 5× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W4",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0386
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.0723
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          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.114
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1583
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2046
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          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2563
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        {
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          "p_yes": 0.3084
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3602
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.405
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4467
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4826
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5163
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5453
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5703
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5918
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6122
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6296
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6605
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W4",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0616
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0898
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1611
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2073
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2548
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2995
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3416
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3811
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4182
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4502
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5237
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5786
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W4",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only developer-stated (or developer-endorsed) estimates of the AI-attributed multiplier on developer-wide capability/research progress versus a human-only counterfactual (e.g., 'N years of progress in 1 year due to AI') with a described method; researcher-productivity, code-volume, agent-workday, task-share (R&D Automation Index) figures and unendorsed third-party (e.g., METR) estimates do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.166
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.21
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W4",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The leading AI labs currently say AI is speeding up their research by less than double. Reaching a documented fivefold speedup would take a near-explosive jump in AI doing AI research. A lab would then also have to publish a specific number with a clear method. If it happens, the most likely window is 2028–2029. The development that would most change this forecast is a lab announcing that AI can fully automate its research, or reporting a doubling well ahead of expectations.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.103
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.257
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.266
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W4",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The leading AI labs' own measurements say AI has sped up their overall progress by roughly one and a half times, far short of five. A documented fivefold speed-up would mean a runaway, self-improving phase was under way. The labs say they intend to slow down before that point, and they report this kind of figure cautiously. A lab report saying it had passed a doubling, with the speed-up still compounding, would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
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          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
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          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
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      "passes": []
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  ],
  "declined": []
}