{
  "question_id": "W5",
  "slug": "ai-speeds-lab-research-20x",
  "title": "A lab says AI has made its research 20× faster",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W5",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0395
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0683
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1056
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1458
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1885
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2372
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2868
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.417
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4876
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5473
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5744
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.62
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6409
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W5",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0346
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0558
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1515
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2302
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2726
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3958
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4321
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4661
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5447
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5675
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W5",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Counted only developer-authored statements giving an explicit organization-wide (overall) central estimate of 20x or more versus a human-only, same-compute counterfactual, with a described method. Capability-trend ratios such as Anthropic's internal-index slope ratio count only if attributed to AI with an explained counterfactual. Ranges count only if their lower bound is 20x or more.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0291
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0352
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0469
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0524
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0576
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0672
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0717
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0801
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0842
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W5",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 16% by end-2031. The leading labs' own measurements still show AI speeding up their research by less than double, far below twenty times. Getting there would likely require AI to take over almost all research work, and then a lab would still have to publish a specific figure with its method, which labs have so far avoided. The biggest change would be a lab reporting that AI now does nearly all of its research, with the pace climbing fast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W5",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The leading AI labs currently say AI has sped up their overall research by less than twofold (about 1.5 times by an outside evaluator's estimate). A documented twentyfold claim would require a full \"intelligence explosion\" and a lab willing to quantify it publicly. I put the chance at about 1% by end of 2027, rising to about 20% by end of 2031. The biggest mover would be a lab reporting truly autonomous AI research alongside sharply rising measured acceleration.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.161
        },
        {
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          "p_yes": 0.173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}