{
  "question_id": "W6",
  "slug": "ai-speeds-lab-research-100x",
  "title": "A lab says AI has made its research 100× faster",
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      "question_id": "W6",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-03",
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      "opened": "2026-09-16",
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      "reading_adopted": "Only a developer-published, program-wide achieved research-pace ratio >=100 vs. a human-only counterfactual with a described method counts (e.g., an RSP-style historical comparison adjusted for compute); individual-uplift surveys, agent-workday/labor counts, task-level speedups, and bounds like '<2x' do not.",
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        {
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        {
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      "question_id": "W6",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-10",
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      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
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      "summary": "No AI company has yet claimed that AI even doubles its overall research speed. Anthropic's latest report says the gain is under two times, and OpenAI gives no overall figure. A hundredfold speed-up, published with a method, would probably require a full intelligence explosion, so I estimate about a 7% chance by the end of 2031. What would most change this is a lab announcing that AI has fully automated its research.",
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      "summary": "Today the leading AI companies measure the boost AI gives their own research at less than double, and one finds no measurable speed-up at all. A hundredfold boost would need a true runaway, with AI doing nearly all research far better than people and no deliberate slowdown, and then a careful published estimate. The development that would most change this forecast is a company reporting a measured overall speed-up of ten times or more.",
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