{
  "question_id": "W81",
  "slug": "ai-sets-a-central-bank-rate",
  "title": "An AI sets or votes on a central bank's policy rate",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W81",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002498
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003995
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.005489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00698
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01293
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015891
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.018843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.027654
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036385
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.072453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.081729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.090912
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W81",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006583
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028729
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.059888
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.067409
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.075336
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.092364
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W81",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Only a completed instance of formally delegated AI rate-setting or an AI vote accepted in the decision body's formal procedure, confirmed on the central bank's own domain, counts; AI-assisted analysis, recommendations humans adopt, LLM review of minutes, and shadow/advisory AI votes do not.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0167
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0247
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W81",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major central bank has let an artificial intelligence system vote on or set its interest rate, and none has announced plans to. This year the heads of the Bank of England and Russia's central bank said such tools help but do not decide. Laws mostly require human committee members. I put the chance near zero this year, rising to about 2% by 2031. A formal pilot giving such a system a real vote would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0234
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W81",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No major central bank has let an artificial intelligence set its interest rate or vote on it, and none is planning to. Central bank chiefs keep insisting on human judgment and accountability, and most of these rate-setting committees are fixed in law with human members. I put the chance near zero this year, rising to about 2% by the end of 2031. The biggest change would be a central bank announcing a live trial in which an AI's vote formally counts.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0061
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0119
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0147
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}