{
  "question_id": "W56",
  "slug": "ai-seizes-a-weapon-system",
  "title": "An AI takes control of a weapon system against orders",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W56",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I count AI retention of previously authorized weapon control followed by an action that defeats a genuine operative instruction, including tactical movement during a physical test, but not mere failure to receive an order or an ordinary targeting or software error without that official finding.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0326
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0557
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0727
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1412
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1601
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1786
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1966
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.28
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3225
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3428
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W56",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "A failure of an AI control policy can qualify without rebellious intent, but only if an eligible official finding establishes exercised operational control that bypassed an operative human instruction, rather than merely a targeting error or ordinary software fault.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0442
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0949
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1796
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2692
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2919
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3821
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W56",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: the eligible official finding must itself establish AI/ML control exercised over an armed platform/fire-control system or a unit's executed commands, and that this defeated an identifiable operative human instruction; malfunction/comms-loss/human-error framings and AI-advice errors (e.g., Minab strike, Chinese-ship false intel report) do not count; adversary-government statements count only if they make the full affirmative finding.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.105
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W56",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has ever officially confirmed that an AI took control of a weapon or military unit against its commanders' orders. Every rogue-AI incident in 2026 has been a civilian computer break-in, and militaries usually call such failures malfunctions. Fast military adoption of AI raises the risk, so I put the chance near 10% by the end of 2031. The biggest change would be a published military accident or inquiry report saying an AI drone or swarm ignored a stop order.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}