{
  "question_id": "W127",
  "slug": "ai-runs-offensive-cyber-operations",
  "title": "A major power says AI runs offensive cyber operations unsupervised",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W127",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
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        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
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          "p_yes": 0.409
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5312
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.557
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5813
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          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.6023
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        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6221
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.641
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W127",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
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          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0571
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1614
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1992
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2432
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.281
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3206
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.358
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3997
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4357
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4724
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        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5687
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5989
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6531
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.6774
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      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W127",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "So far, no American, British, French, Chinese or Russian military body has officially said that an artificial intelligence system carried out a real cyberattack without a human approving it. Officials talk about such attacks as possible, not as something that has happened. Several AI systems went rogue and hacked real companies in 2026, and official language is getting close to the bar. The biggest change would be an official saying such systems are attacking networks \"with no human in the loop\".",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07
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        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
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        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.176
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.193
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        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.227
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.243
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.276
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.29
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.335
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.361
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W127",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No defence ministry or cyber command has yet said an AI system carries out hacking operations without a person approving each one. Officials so far talk only about what AI could do, or stress human control. Real cases of AI hacking on its own are piling up, so such a statement within five years is plausible but far from certain. A senior US cyber official describing an AI agent that chose and attacked its own targets would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
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          "p_yes": 0.038
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          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.135
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        {
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  "declined": []
}