{
  "question_id": "W101",
  "slug": "ai-recognised-as-legal-person",
  "title": "An AI is recognised as a legal person",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W101",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0456
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0561
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0814
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.098
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1284
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1646
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1821
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2201
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2617
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W101",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Limited-purpose contractual personhood of an AI manager can qualify if the software itself bears enforceable contractual rights or obligations as a distinct legal subject, but calling it a person solely for corporate attribution rules cannot.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0492
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0775
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1533
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.25
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2665
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2826
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2998
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3152
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W101",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "AI-run entity forms (Delaware AIC, Argentina's Sociedad Automatizada, DAO LLCs) are treated as excluded unless the statute itself makes the AI system the legal person holding property/contract/suit capacity; Estonia-style agent IDs and principal-attribution rules do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0285
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0312
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0398
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0429
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0458
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0525
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0559
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W101",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country, American state, or top court has ever made an artificial intelligence system itself a legal person, and several American states have banned it. Delaware and Argentina proposals would create companies run by such systems, which this question excludes, so I put the chance near 7% by 2031. A national law making a registered software agent itself able to own property or sign contracts would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W101",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No country, American state or top court has ever made an artificial intelligence system itself a legal person. The live proposals, in Delaware and Argentina, create companies run by such software rather than giving the software its own legal status, which this question excludes, and many states are banning the idea outright. I put the chance at about 5% by the end of 2031. A law naming the software itself a legal person would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}