{
  "question_id": "W232",
  "slug": "ai-recognised-as-inventor",
  "title": "An AI is recognised as a patent inventor",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W232",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0489
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0594
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0707
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0956
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1538
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1699
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1865
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2036
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.239
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W232",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0259
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0405
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0586
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0802
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0921
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1324
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1471
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1625
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1784
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1948
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2117
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W232",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "The forecast is about 0.2% by the end of 2026, rising to about 2% by the end of 2031. Every top court and appeal board that has ruled in the listed systems (the US, Britain, Japan and Europe's patent office) has held that only humans can be inventors. China's top court and Korea's patent office take the same view, and no bill to change this is pending anywhere. A surprise win in the AI-inventor appeal still pending before Korea's Supreme Court would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0135
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W232",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Every court and patent office in the six systems named here has ruled that only humans can be inventors, and in 2025–26 governments in the US, China, Korea and Japan restated that position. The remaining chances are a surprise reversal in Korea's pending Supreme Court appeal, or a new law if AI starts inventing on its own at scale. I estimate about a 2% chance by the end of 2031. A Korean or Japanese bill naming AI as an inventor would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0067
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0124
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0141
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0188
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0198
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}