{
  "question_id": "W129",
  "slug": "ai-plans-a-military-campaign",
  "title": "An AI writes the plan for a military campaign that is carried out",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W129",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0366
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0607
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0889
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1162
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1472
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2415
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2757
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3691
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.4861
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.5144
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5411
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.5663
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W129",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.307
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.342
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.375
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.406
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.436
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.516
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.54
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.563
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.585
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W129",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-30",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-30",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Requires an official statement explicitly identifying an AI system as having generated the executed campaign-level operational plan (commander selection/approval of an AI-generated plan counts); statements that AI 'helped', 'supported', generated targets/strike packages/options, or planned a single tactical operation or strike do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.112
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.136
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.185
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W129",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-07",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-07",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government has yet officially said an AI system wrote the plan for a military campaign its forces carried out. The US, Israel and Ukraine use AI heavily, but official statements say AI only helps human planners or picks targets. Faster AI progress and ongoing wars make such a claim more likely over five years. The biggest change would be the US war department announcing that AI agents produced a campaign plan that commanders approved and carried out.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.027
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.127
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.146
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.156
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W129",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-14",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-14",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Militaries now openly credit artificial intelligence with speeding up targeting and planning. But every official account still says the AI assists and humans plan and decide, and no government has yet said an AI produced a campaign plan that its forces then carried out. I put the chance at under 1% this year, rising to about 17% by the end of 2031. What would most change this: a US official boasting that a renewed Iran campaign ran on an AI-written plan.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.151
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.168
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}