{
  "question_id": "W268",
  "slug": "ai-permitted-as-clergy",
  "title": "A major religion permits an AI to act as clergy",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W268",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0169
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0432
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0547
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0773
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1573
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1724
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2351
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2512
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W268",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0189
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0855
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0955
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1207
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.133
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1597
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.174
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.188
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W268",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Strict reading: only an official act of the body itself explicitly authorizing an ML-driven AI in a clergy, officiant, or binding-ruling role counts, with >=10M adherents shown by census/representative survey identifying the body or its official membership statistics; advisory/nonbinding AI fatwa or Q&A tools and lay-precept ceremonies for robots do not count.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0081
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0107
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0122
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0155
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0173
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0191
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0211
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0253
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W268",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large religious body has ever formally let an artificial intelligence act as clergy, perform a rite or issue binding rulings. The biggest ones, including the Catholic Church, leading Muslim councils and Indonesia's largest Muslim organization, say machines may only assist humans. The boldest experimenter, a Korean Buddhist order, is too small to count. What would most change this forecast is a large Muslim or Buddhist authority officially making a machine's answers binding.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0142
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0187
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0236
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0271
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W268",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No large religious group has formally let an AI serve as clergy, perform a recognized rite, or issue binding rulings. Nearly every major religious authority that addressed AI in 2025–2026 said it may only assist humans. The nearest case, a Korean Buddhist order's robot initiation in May 2026, made the robot a lay follower and came before the window. A large Buddhist order formally letting an AI robot lead ceremonies would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.028
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}