{
  "question_id": "W149",
  "slug": "ai-negotiates-or-monitors-us-china-deal",
  "title": "AI systems negotiate or monitor a US–China agreement",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W149",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0364
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0546
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0763
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0883
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1589
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1749
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1914
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2084
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W149",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0523
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0627
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0988
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1123
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1265
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1414
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1568
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1728
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1894
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2239
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W149",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Literal reading: requires an official US/PRC source (or agreement text) explicitly stating AI made/responded to substantive proposals, or explicitly describing autonomous/unreviewed AI compliance judgements; US documents' use of 'super intelligence (SI)' for AI is treated as explicitly identifying AI.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0035
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0049
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0184
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0246
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0313
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0347
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0381
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0451
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0486
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0521
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W149",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No international agreement has ever said that artificial intelligence negotiated it or judges compliance without people checking each finding, and Washington and Beijing both stress human control. September's summit only created talks and an incident hotline. A small chance builds after 2028 if far more capable systems push the two powers toward a verified arms-control deal. Serious talks on such a treaty using artificial-intelligence inspectors would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0044
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0092
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0138
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0165
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0193
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0354
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0388
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0422
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0457
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W149",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No agreement between the US and China, or any governments, has ever said that artificial intelligence negotiated it or checks compliance on its own. Current US–China talks are only setting up a dialogue and an incident hotline. The chance grows later in the decade if fast AI progress leads to a serious AI treaty using automated AI inspectors. A signed treaty limiting AI that relies on such inspectors would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0012
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0115
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0213
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0269
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0298
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0328
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0391
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0423
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}