{
  "question_id": "W89",
  "slug": "ai-named-top-problem-by-25-percent",
  "title": "25% of Americans name AI the country's most important problem",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W89",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004595
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008577
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013534
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.019453
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026316
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.034106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.053327
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.063741
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.074976
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.086076
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.097957
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.109684
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.122148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.134438
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.147421
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172807
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.185215
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W89",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00609
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01305
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04719
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.07462
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.08943
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10491
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12102
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.15497
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.17271
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.20952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.22849
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24778
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.26659
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.28492
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W89",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-02",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-02",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Gallup's current broad 'Advancement of computers/technology' figure does not count by itself; YES requires a Gallup-published AI-labelled or explicitly AI-specific share of all adults of 25% or more in a single monthly MIP wave.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0159
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0228
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0306
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0389
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.047
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0551
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0632
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0702
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0772
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0836
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0959
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1018
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1179
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1232
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1284
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W89",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-09",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-09",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only about 1% of Americans currently name technology or AI as the country's top problem in Gallup's open-ended monthly poll, even after months of alarming AI news. Reaching 25% has historically required national shocks like 9/11 or COVID. Over five years, with AI advancing quickly, I put the chance at about 11%. A major AI-caused disaster that disrupts everyday American life would most change this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.048
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.054
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.064
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.082
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.095
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.099
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.104
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.108
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W89",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-16",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-16",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only about 1 in 100 Americans name technology or AI as the country's top problem in Gallup's monthly survey, even after a summer of alarming AI incidents and warnings from AI company leaders. Reaching 1 in 4 would put AI alongside the biggest shocks in the survey's history, like the September 11 attacks or COVID. I put the chance at about 12% over five years. A major AI-caused disaster, or mass job losses blamed on AI, would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.039
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.051
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.063
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.085
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.116
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}