{
  "question_id": "W88",
  "slug": "ai-named-top-problem-by-10-percent",
  "title": "10% of Americans name AI the country's most important problem",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W88",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0161
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0279
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0416
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0952
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1425
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1648
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2101
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.233
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.256
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2791
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3252
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3481
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3917
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W88",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0091
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0288
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0635
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1134
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1435
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1675
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1925
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2183
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2449
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2721
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2997
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.3277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.356
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.3843
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4126
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.4408
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W88",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-01",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-01",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Gallup's existing 'Advancement of computers/technology' category does not count unless Gallup explicitly reports an AI share or relabels/creates an AI-specific category; a qualifying monthly full-sample point estimate must be >=10%.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.062
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.153
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.177
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.196
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.216
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.234
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.253
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.27
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.319
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.334
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.349
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.363
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W88",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-08",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-08",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put the chance at about 30% by the end of 2031. Gallup has no separate AI category, and as of September only about 1% of Americans named technology or AI as the nation's top problem, even at the peak of AI news coverage. Reaching 10% would mean a tenfold rise, a level few issues ever hit. Still, AI is moving fast, and a serious AI disaster or a wave of AI-driven job losses could change that. An October Gallup reading well above 1% would most change my forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.042
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.06
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.145
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.16
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.19
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.217
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.23
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.242
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.254
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.266
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.277
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.287
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.298
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W88",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-15",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-15",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "Only about 1 in 100 Americans now name technology, where Gallup files artificial intelligence, as the nation's top problem, and Gallup has never counted it separately. Issues starting this low have reached 10% mainly after big shocks, such as a pandemic or a school shooting. Rapid progress and runaway-software incidents make such a shock plausible, so I give roughly one in four by 2031. A major artificial intelligence disaster disrupting everyday life would most change this.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.059
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.077
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.094
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.111
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.143
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.172
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.197
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.209
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.22
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.24
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.258
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.267
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}