{
  "question_id": "W50",
  "slug": "ai-linked-attack-kills-100000",
  "title": "An AI-driven or AI-enabled attack kills 100,000 people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W50",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0009
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.004592
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006384
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00857
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.011148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.014114
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.017466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0212
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.025311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029794
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.034645
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.039858
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.051345
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.057606
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.064203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.071128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.078373
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W50",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I apply the military exclusion to commander-authorized strikes rather than to every state-directed operation, so a separately identified non-strike campaign can qualify only if the institution attributes at least 100,000 eligible deaths and a material AI role to it.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002248
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003446
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004841
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006433
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008222
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.010205
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.012383
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.014753
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017315
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.020066
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.026132
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029443
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.032937
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.036612
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.040466
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.044496
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0487
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W50",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-05",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-05",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or United Nations body has ever blamed anywhere near 100,000 deaths on an attack that relied on artificial intelligence, or on such a system acting alone, and no non-military attack in modern history has killed that many. The risk is rising as these systems grow more capable, so I put the chance below 1% over five years. A mass-casualty attack that investigators publicly tied to artificial intelligence would change this most.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00075
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00105
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00175
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00215
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00394
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00444
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00494
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00549
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00603
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00658
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00718
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00777
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00837
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W50",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-12",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-12",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I put this at about 1.5% by the end of 2031, and near zero before 2027. No attack outside of war has ever killed 100,000 people, and no such event is under way now. Even a disaster helped along by artificial intelligence would also need an official finding that names the AI's role and the death toll. The development that would most change this forecast is a deliberately engineered pandemic linked to AI-assisted attackers.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0031
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0045
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0078
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0096
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0117
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0139
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0151
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}