{
  "question_id": "W49",
  "slug": "ai-linked-attack-kills-1000",
  "title": "An AI-driven or AI-enabled attack kills 1,000 people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W49",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0033
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0083
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0152
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0348
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0464
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0588
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0859
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1158
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1317
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1482
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.1653
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.1828
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.2379
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2569
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.2763
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W49",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00758
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01056
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01353
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01846
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02337
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.02825
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.03311
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.04084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.04852
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.05613
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.06368
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.07304
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.08231
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.09149
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.10057
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.11137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.12203
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.13257
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W49",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-04",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-04",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "Attacks by organized armed groups ordered by their commanders were treated as possibly falling under the military-strike exclusion (weighted ~50%), and YES was taken to require the authority itself to link a material AI role and a ≥1,000 toll covering a period ending after 2026-09-16 to the same event or explicitly identified campaign.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0022
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0032
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0043
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0055
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0069
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0084
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0118
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0137
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0157
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0178
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.02
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0224
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0249
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0303
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0331
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0361
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0392
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W49",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-11",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-11",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No government or United Nations body has ever officially blamed 1,000 or more deaths on a single attack or incident driven by artificial intelligence outside of war, and attacks that deadly are rare. The likeliest route is a huge terrorist attack whose planners, investigators find, relied on chatbots or similar tools. A mass-casualty biological attack, or a runaway artificial intelligence system causing physical harm, would most raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0008
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0023
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0038
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0053
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0068
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0088
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0108
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0128
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0148
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0171
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0194
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0218
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0241
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0267
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0318
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0344
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0371
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0399
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0427
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0455
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}