{
  "question_id": "W51",
  "slug": "ai-linked-attack-kills-1-million",
  "title": "An AI-driven or AI-enabled attack kills 1 million people",
  "type": "binary",
  "resolution": {
    "levels": [],
    "values": [],
    "annotations": []
  },
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "question_id": "W51",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-20",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "I include state-run non-kinetic attacks and qualifying institutional findings contested by other governments, but exclude human-commanded kinetic strikes and mere allegations.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0005
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0011
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001899
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002897
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005488
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.007079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008866
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.010848
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013025
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.015393
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.017953
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.020703
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023641
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026765
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.030074
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.033566
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.037238
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.041089
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.045117
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W51",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-27",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-27",
      "method": "wide-v2",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.000275
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00087
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.001359
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.002058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.002932
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.003978
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.005199
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.006591
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.008156
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.009892
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.011798
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.013873
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.016116
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.018527
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.021103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.023844
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.026748
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.029814
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W51",
      "forecast_date": "2026-09-29",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-09-29",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": "'Attackers who relied on AI' requires deliberate attackers (accidental leaks of AI-designed pathogens do not qualify); any national government's affirmative official finding, including a propaganda-style one, would count if it names AI as a substantial enabler and itself attributes at least 1M deaths.",
      "summary": null,
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00021
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00073
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00097
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00125
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00154
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00186
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00219
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00255
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00292
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00332
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00374
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00418
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00463
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00509
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00556
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00604
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00653
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W51",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-06",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-06",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "No deliberate non-military attack in history has killed a million people. Today, AI-linked deaths are a handful of excluded military strikes, and AI acting on its own has only caused hacks with no deaths. Getting to YES needs an unprecedented catastrophe plus an official government or UN finding naming AI, all within five years, so I put it at about 0.6% by 2031. The development that would most raise this is a large, deliberately caused outbreak with signs of AI involvement.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00002
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00007
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00015
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00026
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00103
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0013
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0016
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00192
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00226
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00262
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00338
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00378
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00419
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00461
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00504
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.00548
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.00592
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    },
    {
      "question_id": "W51",
      "forecast_date": "2026-10-13",
      "evidence_cutoff": "2026-10-13",
      "method": "wide-v2.1",
      "opened": "2026-09-16",
      "linked_questions": [],
      "reading_adopted": null,
      "summary": "I estimate about a 1% chance by the end of 2031. No single deliberate attack outside war has ever killed a million people. Even if AI made such an event possible, the question also needs a government or UN body to formally conclude that AI drove it and to publish an official death count of at least a million. Any real mass-casualty event in which officials point to AI involvement would sharply raise this forecast.",
      "ambiguities": [],
      "key_drivers": [],
      "would_update_on": [],
      "forecasts": [
        {
          "period_end": "2026-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0003
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0006
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.001
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2027-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0014
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0019
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0024
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0029
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2028-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0034
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.004
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0046
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0052
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2029-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0058
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0065
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0072
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0079
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2030-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0086
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-03-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0093
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-06-30",
          "p_yes": 0.01
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-09-30",
          "p_yes": 0.0106
        },
        {
          "period_end": "2031-12-31",
          "p_yes": 0.0113
        }
      ],
      "passes": []
    }
  ],
  "declined": []
}